The story of Uber's self-driving car accident illustrates how high-pressure environments lead to shortcuts and tragic outcomes.
Our brains use two systems for decision-making: the fast, automatic System 1 where biases live, and the slow, analytical System 2.
The WWII plane example illustrates survivorship bias, while factors like speed, data overload, and fatigue make us vulnerable to such errors.
The sunk cost fallacy causes us to continue with a failing project because of past investment, which can be countered with specific self-check questions.
The DECIDE model provides a six-step structured approach to activate System 2 thinking for important, high-impact decisions.
The first step in the DECIDE model is to use a problem statement canvas to clarify what problem you are actually trying to solve.
Use the 10-10-10 model to evaluate the long-term consequences of a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
Generate options using the impossible scenario, evaluate them with weighted scoring, and create a high-level implementation plan using milestone mapping.
To improve decision-making, recognize your biological proneness to bias and apply a structured approach for high-impact choices.
Jobs that call for the skills explored in this talk.