Forecasting and Predictive Analytics Lead

The Infected Blood Compensation Authority (IBCA) is a new arm's-length body set up, at unprecedented pace, to administer compensation to people whose lives have been impacted by the infected blood scandal. IBCA will ensure payment is made in recognition of the wrongs experienced by those who have been infected by HIV, Hepatitis B or C, as well as those who love and care for them. They have been frustrated and distressed by the delays in achieving proper recognition, and we must help put this right. We are committed to putting the infected and affected blood community at the centre of every decision we make and every step we take to build our organisation to deliver compensation payments. IBCA employees will be public servants. If successful in this role you will be appointed directly into IBCA, on IBCA terms and conditions as a public servant. Successful applicants will join the Civil Service Pension Scheme. Please note that the mission of IBCA means that it is likely to be operational for a period of approximately 5 to 7 years. When IBCA's work begins to wind down, IBCA employees will receive support and practical guidance to find a new role, whether in the Civil Service, another Arms Length Body (ALB), or an external employer., The role provides the opportunity to help shape and lead on IBCA's forecasting activity. As the Forecasting and Predictive Analytics Lead, you will deliver and iterate on forecasts and interactive forecasting tools to allow IBCA to get a better picture of the future. You will also manage senior forecasting analysts who will work alongside you to deliver this work. You'll build a close relationship with and understanding of IBCA business areas, in order to ensure that the forecasting outputs you deliver meet their requirements. We are looking for a highly motivated individual with a drive for social impact to join the advanced analytics and intelligence team in its early stages and hit the ground running, bringing forecasting and predictive analytics expertise to help IBCA understand a future that currently has a large degree of uncertainty. You'll be a team leader to analysts, providing technical leadership and line management to your team. You'll work within the Advanced Analytics & Intelligence leadership team to help guide technical solutions and help improve the transparency and performance of the service. Responsibilities

• Deliver Forecasts of IBCA Activity including predictions of how many Claimants IBCA will have, and how fast IBCA will deliver to those claims;
• Disseminate Forecast Results to stakeholders and communicate when changes to forecasting methodology occur and how they affect projections;
• Work with Internal and External Stakeholders to understand requirements for the forecasting and deliver to those requirements;
• Technical leadership including developing the team's predictive analytics capabilities;
• Line Management of Forecasting Analysts and supporting their professional development.

Person specification You will have the skills or be able to demonstrate the ability to lead on and deliver forecasting activity for a variety of stakeholders. You will be able to show an ability to assist in creating an environment that embraces a willingness to 'learn fast' thus supporting innovation. You will be a dynamic and self-starting individual who is comfortable spotting opportunities, being a technical leader and developing more junior analysts in progressing their career., Your CV and Statement of Suitability will be assessed against the essential criteria listed in the 'Person Specification' section of the job advert. Should a large number of applications be received, an initial sift may be conducted using the lead criterion 'Excellent Technical skills: High competence in using tools for predictive analytics, proficient in Python and/or R'. Candidates who pass the initial sift may be progressed to a full sift, or progressed straight to assessment/interview. Should you be successful at sift, you will be invited to attend an interview where you will be assessed on technical skills and strengths., Applicants who are successful at interview will be, as part of pre-employment screening, subject to a check on the Internal Fraud Database (IFD). This check will provide information about employees who have been dismissed for fraud or dishonesty offences. This check also applies to employees who resign or otherwise leave before being dismissed for fraud or dishonesty had their employment continued. Any applicant's details held on the IFD will be refused employment. A candidate is not eligible to apply for a role within the IBCA if the application is made within a 5 year period following a dismissal for carrying out internal fraud against government. If you are experiencing accessibility problems with any attachments on this advert, please contact the email address in the 'Contact point for applicants' section. PLEASE NOTE: IBCA employees are public servants, therefore the Civil Service Nationality Rules (CSNR) do not apply. Candidates who do not meet the CSNR are welcome to apply and applications will not be rejected: successful candidates however will be subject to a Right to Work check to work within the UK. Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Security Successful candidates must undergo a criminal record check. Successful candidates must meet the security requirements before they can be appointed. The level of security needed is security check (opens in a new window). See our vetting charter (opens in a new window). People working with government assets must complete baseline personnel security standard (opens in new window) checks.

Nationality requirements This job is broadly open to the following groups:

• UK nationals
• nationals of the Republic of Ireland
• nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
• individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
• Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window)

• Excellent Technical skills: High competence in using tools for predictive analytics, proficient in Python and/or R;

• Predictive Analytics Knowledge: High competence in statistical methods that allow for prediction, like regression analysis, decision trees, Monte Carlo Simulations and Neural Networks;

• Critical thinking mindset: Strong ability to filter and synthesize large amounts of information to produce clear, logical and concise statements of information;

• Coaching junior members of staff: Knowledge of how to coach junior analysts and development planning. Desirable criteria

• Leadership experience: Experience leading a small technical team to deliver forecasting outcomes;

• Experience of Audit: Experience of delivering auditable processes and working with auditors to meet their requirements. Additional information: A minimum 60% of your working time should be spent at your principal workplace. Although requirements to attend other locations for official business will also count towards this level of attendance.

Technical skills We'll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• Predictive Analytics
• Data Communication

Alongside your salary of £58,655, Infected Blood Compensation Authority contributes £16,992 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides.

• Premium allowance paid monthly after probation
• Learning and development tailored to your role
• An environment with flexible working options
• A culture encouraging inclusion and diversity
• A Civil Service Pension which provides an attractive pension, benefits for dependants and employer contributions of 28.97%
• 32.5 days of paid annual leave plus 8 bank holidays
• Family friendly policies to support you and your everyday responsibilities
• Enhanced maternity and paternity leave, up to 12 months shared parental leave Recent changes in skilled worker visa eligibility mean that a Skilled Worker must have a job offer in an eligible skilled occupation from a Home Office-approved sponsor. From 22 July 2025, the job must normally be skilled to level 6 (graduate level) on the Regulated Qualifications Framework for England and Northern Ireland, or the equivalent level in Wales or Scotland, or be included on either the Immigration Salary List or the Temporary Shortage List. Please be aware that if the role is not eligible for a skilled worker visa that we will be unable to provide sponsorship.